Not all trends deserve the same response. A trend that's gathering momentum demands different strategic action than one approaching market saturation. Yet many strategy teams treat trends as static signals—either relevant or not—without considering where each trend sits in its lifecycle.
This blind spot creates real problems. Move too early on an immature trend and you waste resources on false starts. Move too late on a maturing trend and competitors capture the value. The difference between strategic foresight and strategic hindsight often comes down to accurately reading trend momentum.
In this guide, I'll walk you through practical methods for assessing trend momentum and maturity. You'll learn how to distinguish between emerging, accelerating, and maturing trends—and how to calibrate your strategic response accordingly.
Trend momentum refers to the rate and direction of change in a trend's influence, adoption, or impact. Is the trend accelerating, plateauing, or declining? How quickly is it moving through different phases of adoption?
Trend maturity describes where a trend sits in its overall lifecycle—from early emergence through mainstream adoption to eventual saturation or transformation.
Think of momentum as velocity (how fast and in what direction) and maturity as position (where on the journey). A trend can have high momentum but low maturity (rapidly emerging), or low momentum but high maturity (stable and established).
This distinction matters because strategic responses should vary across lifecycle stages:
Emerging trends reward exploration, experimentation, and option-building Accelerating trends reward commitment, investment, and capability building Maturing trends reward optimisation, efficiency, and market positioning Declining or transforming trends reward transition planning and next-horizon scanning
Understanding both momentum and maturity helps you allocate attention and resources appropriately—avoiding both premature commitment and missed opportunity windows.
The cost of misreading trend timing compounds quickly. Consider what's at stake:
Moving too early on immature trends means investing in capabilities that may never reach market relevance, building for customer needs that haven't yet crystallised, or advocating for initiatives that lack organisational readiness.
Moving too late on accelerating trends means playing catch-up against established competitors, paying premium prices for capabilities others built cheaply, or scrambling to respond to customer expectations you didn't anticipate.
Misreading momentum direction leads to doubling down on trends that have peaked, or abandoning promising trends during temporary slowdowns.
Strategy leaders who can accurately assess trend momentum and maturity gain a genuine timing advantage. They make better decisions about when to watch, when to pilot, when to commit, and when to move on. This isn't about predicting the future—it's about reading the present more accurately than others.
Before assessing momentum, you need clear documentation of the trend's current state. Define:
What exactly the trend is — Be specific about scope and boundaries When you first observed it — Your initial reference point What evidence supported your initial assessment — Signals that indicated relevance
This baseline becomes your reference for tracking change over time. Without it, you're assessing momentum against shifting goalposts.
Example: Rather than tracking "sustainability" (too broad), define "circular economy business models in consumer goods packaging"—with your baseline observation date and the specific signals that prompted your interest.
Trend momentum shows up differently in different domains. A comprehensive assessment looks at signals across:
Market signals: Investment activity (funding rounds, M&A) New entrants and exits Pricing changes and business model evolution Customer adoption metrics
Technology signals: Patent filings and research publications Technology readiness levels Infrastructure development Interoperability and standards emergence
Cultural and behavioural signals: Media coverage and sentiment Consumer awareness and attitudes Behavioural change indicators Influencer and early adopter activity
Regulatory and institutional signals: Policy development and legislative activity Industry association positions Standards body activity Educational curriculum changes
Trends with momentum show consistent directional movement across multiple domains. Trends stalling show mixed or contradictory signals.
Use these indicators to position the trend within its lifecycle:
Emergence Stage Indicators: Signals primarily from researchers, inventors, or fringe early adopters Limited commercial activity; experimental business models High uncertainty about final form and application Media coverage (if any) tends toward speculation Few established metrics for tracking
Acceleration Stage Indicators: Rapid increase in investment and new entrants Early mainstream adopters joining early adopters Business model convergence beginning Growing media attention; trend naming solidifies Metrics and benchmarks emerging
Maturity Stage Indicators: Market leaders clearly established Late majority adoption underway Consolidation through M&A activity Well-established metrics and industry benchmarks Diminishing media novelty; "table stakes" language appears
Transformation/Decline Stage Indicators: Market saturation or disruption by newer trends Leader exits or pivots Regulatory stabilisation (innovation slowdown) Next-generation alternatives emerging
With your baseline and current signals mapped, evaluate:
Direction: Is the overall trend signal strengthening, stable, or weakening compared to your baseline?
Velocity: How quickly is change occurring? Compare the rate of signal change across your observation period.
Consistency: Are signals across domains moving in the same direction, or showing divergence?
Create a simple momentum assessment: Strong positive momentum: Consistent strengthening signals across multiple domains Moderate positive momentum: Strengthening in some domains; stable in others Stable: Little change from baseline across domains Mixed/uncertain: Conflicting signals across domains Negative momentum: Consistent weakening signals
Match your strategic posture to your momentum/maturity assessment:
| Maturity Stage | Momentum | Suggested Strategic Posture |
|---|---|---|
| Emerging | Positive | Monitor closely; build options; small experiments |
| Emerging | Stable/Mixed | Watch list; limited investment |
| Accelerating | Strong positive | Commit resources; build capabilities; seek early positioning |
| Accelerating | Moderating | Evaluate commitment level; prepare for maturity |
| Maturing | Stable | Optimise existing positions; efficiency focus |
| Maturing | Negative | Transition planning; harvest value; scan for next wave |
Momentum and maturity assessments aren't one-time exercises. Establish triggers for reassessment:
Calendar-based: Quarterly review of priority trends Signal-based: Significant event triggers (major funding round, regulatory change, competitor move) Threshold-based: When accumulated signals suggest stage transition
Document your assessments over time. The pattern of your assessments often reveals more than any single snapshot.
In early 2022, generative AI might have been assessed as an emerging trend with moderate positive momentum—interesting signals from research but limited commercial application.
By late 2023, the same assessment would show an accelerating trend with strong positive momentum: massive investment activity, rapid enterprise adoption, new entrants across sectors, significant media coverage, and early regulatory activity.
The strategic implications shift dramatically: from "interesting to watch" to "requires immediate capability building and strategic positioning."
Remote work in late 2019 sat in an early maturity stage with stable momentum—established for some organisations but not accelerating broadly.
The pandemic created artificial acceleration, followed by a period of mixed momentum as organisations navigated return-to-office debates. By 2024, hybrid work models have reached maturity with stable momentum—now "table stakes" rather than differentiator.
Strategic response appropriately shifted from "crisis adaptation" to "optimisation and efficiency."
Blockchain for supply chain transparency showed strong positive momentum from 2017-2019—significant investment, major pilot programmes, extensive media coverage.
By 2022-2023, momentum had moderated significantly. Many pilots hadn't scaled; investment had shifted to other applications; media attention waned. The trend appears stalled in early acceleration, requiring reassessment of timing expectations.
Cast a wide signal net. Momentum assessment suffers when signal sources are too narrow. Diversify across domains and geographies.
Distinguish signal from noise. One major announcement isn't momentum; a pattern of announcements is. Look for consistency across independent sources.
Beware recency bias. Recent signals feel more significant than they often are. Compare against your documented baseline, not your memory.
Track your accuracy. Review past momentum assessments against actual trend evolution. This builds calibration over time.
Separate assessment from advocacy. It's easy to see momentum where you want a trend to succeed. Apply consistent frameworks regardless of preferred outcomes.
Accept uncertainty. Some trends genuinely have mixed signals. Acknowledging uncertainty is more useful than forcing false confidence.
Understanding trend momentum and maturity connects to the broader practice of strategic intelligence. These related resources will help you build a complete approach:
Signals vs Trends: A Modern Foresight Framework — Understand how individual signals combine into trends worth tracking How to Build a Trend Radar: A Complete Guide — Create a visual system for monitoring trends across maturity stages Trend Clustering Techniques (With Examples) — Group related trends to identify broader patterns and implications Trend Taxonomies: Classifying Change Effectively — Organise trends into meaningful categories for strategic analysis How to Evaluate Trend Impact (Opportunities, Risks, Uncertainties) — Assess what trends mean for your specific strategic context
For comprehensive guidance on building strategic intelligence capabilities, see the parent pillar: Signals, Trends & Strategic Intelligence: Making Sense of Change
Start by selecting three to five trends already on your radar. For each, document a baseline assessment: maturity stage, momentum direction, and the signals supporting your view.
Set a calendar reminder to reassess in 30 days. Compare your initial assessment against new signals—has momentum shifted? Is your maturity staging still accurate?
Portage's Trend Reports can accelerate this process by automatically gathering and organising signals across domains, making momentum patterns easier to spot. Generate your first Trend Radar to see how your priority trends map across maturity stages.
Trend momentum and maturity require separate assessment — velocity and position tell different strategic stories Multi-domain signal mapping reveals momentum more accurately than single-source tracking Lifecycle stage should calibrate strategic response — from exploration to commitment to optimisation Document baselines and track over time — patterns matter more than snapshots Build review triggers into your process to catch stage transitions Acknowledge uncertainty — mixed signals are information, not failure