Strategic foresight isn't a single technique—it's a toolkit. And like any toolkit, knowing which instrument to reach for makes the difference between insight and confusion.
If you've explored scenario planning or trend analysis, you've likely encountered references to methods with unfamiliar names: Delphi, Causal Layered Analysis, horizon scanning, backcasting. Each serves a distinct purpose in the foresight practitioner's work.
This guide provides an accessible overview of the most practical foresight methodologies. You'll learn what each method does, when to use it, and how these tools work together to build more robust strategic thinking. Whether you're a strategy leader building internal capability or a consultant expanding your methodological range, understanding these tools helps you design foresight processes that match your specific challenges.
Foresight methods are structured approaches for exploring potential futures systematically. They help teams move beyond assumptions and gut feelings toward evidence-based anticipation.
Unlike forecasting—which attempts to predict a single future—foresight methods acknowledge uncertainty and explore multiple possibilities. They're designed to surface blind spots, challenge assumptions, and identify strategic options before events force reactive decisions.
The key distinction: foresight methods don't tell you what will happen. They help you think more rigorously about what could happen and what that means for decisions today.
These methods range from participatory techniques (gathering expert insights) to analytical frameworks (examining underlying structures) to creative approaches (imagining alternative futures). Most effective foresight work combines several methods, using each where it adds the most value.
Understanding when and how to deploy these tools separates strategic foresight from speculation.
Without structured methods, future-thinking tends to default to two problematic patterns: either extrapolating current trends forward in a straight line, or generating creative but disconnected "what if" ideas that never inform real decisions.
Structured foresight methods address both failures. They provide:
Rigour under uncertainty. When you can't predict, you can still be systematic. Methods give teams a shared process for exploring unknowns without descending into speculation.
Legitimate challenge to assumptions. Well-designed methods surface hidden beliefs about the future—making them available for examination rather than leaving them buried in strategy documents.
Communication and alignment. A shared methodology means everyone explores the future using common frameworks. This accelerates alignment and reduces the "talking past each other" that plagues strategic discussions.
Audit trails for decisions. When stakeholders ask why certain scenarios or options were considered, documented methods provide clear reasoning—essential for accountability and learning.
Strategy leaders who master these tools can design fit-for-purpose foresight processes rather than applying generic templates to every challenge.
What it is: Systematic monitoring of the external environment for signals of change—emerging trends, weak signals, and potential disruptions.
When to use it: As an ongoing practice or at the start of any foresight project. Horizon scanning provides the raw material for other methods.
How it works: Define scanning domains (technology, society, economy, environment, politics) Identify sources across mainstream and fringe publications Capture signals using structured templates Categorise and assess signals for relevance and potential impact Share findings with stakeholders through regular briefings
Practical tip: Don't just scan for threats. Deliberately look for weak signals of opportunity—emerging needs, shifting behaviours, or new capabilities that could create strategic options.
In Portage, the Trend Database provides curated foresight signals with AI summarisation, giving you a foundation for horizon scanning without building infrastructure from scratch.
What it is: A structured process for gathering and synthesising expert opinions through iterative rounds of questioning and feedback.
When to use it: When you need informed perspectives on uncertain futures and want to minimise bias from dominant voices or groupthink.
How it works: Assemble a diverse panel of experts (8-20 participants typically) Design focused questions about future developments Conduct Round 1: Individual responses without group influence Analyse responses and identify areas of agreement and divergence Conduct Round 2: Share aggregated results; participants revise views Repeat until positions stabilise or insights crystallise
Practical tip: The value of Delphi isn't consensus—it's structured disagreement. Pay close attention to where experts diverge; these areas often signal genuine uncertainty worth exploring through scenarios.
What it is: A framework for examining issues at four levels of depth: litany (surface events), systems (underlying causes), worldview (assumptions and beliefs), and myth/metaphor (deep narratives).
When to use it: When surface-level analysis isn't generating insight, or when you need to understand why certain futures feel "natural" while others seem unthinkable.
How it works: Litany level: Document the official narrative, headlines, and accepted facts Systems level: Map the structures, institutions, and incentives that produce the litany Worldview level: Surface the assumptions, values, and mental models that legitimise the systems Myth level: Identify the deep metaphors and narratives that shape what seems possible
Practical tip: CLA is powerful for challenging "inevitable" futures. When someone says "that will never change," CLA helps reveal the worldviews and myths sustaining current arrangements—and how shifts at deeper levels could transform what seems fixed.
What it is: Working backwards from a desired future state to identify the pathways, milestones, and decisions needed to achieve it.
When to use it: When you have a clear vision of where you want to be and need to map how to get there—particularly useful for transformation initiatives and sustainability planning.
How it works: Define a specific desired future state with clear characteristics Set a timeframe (typically 10-25 years) Work backwards: What would need to be true 5 years before? 10 years before? Identify critical milestones and decision points Map the actions required in the near term to enable the pathway
Practical tip: Backcasting works best when paired with scenario planning. Use scenarios to stress-test whether your backcast pathway remains viable under different future conditions.
What it is: A method for examining how different trends, events, or developments influence each other—revealing interdependencies and potential cascades.
When to use it: When you've identified multiple relevant trends but need to understand how they might interact and amplify or dampen each other.
How it works: List key trends or potential events Create a matrix examining each pair: How would A affect B? How would B affect A? Rate impacts (positive, negative, neutral; high, medium, low) Identify clusters of mutually reinforcing trends Look for potential tipping points where multiple factors converge
Practical tip: Cross-impact analysis often reveals "hidden drivers"—factors that influence many other trends but are themselves rarely discussed. These make excellent focal points for strategic attention.
A regional health authority used CLA to explore why telehealth adoption remained slow despite obvious benefits. At the litany level, they saw low uptake statistics. At the systems level, they mapped reimbursement structures favouring in-person visits. At the worldview level, they surfaced assumptions about "real medicine" requiring physical presence. At the myth level, they found narratives about the "healing touch" that made remote care feel illegitimate.
This deeper analysis revealed that technical solutions alone wouldn't drive adoption—the work required shifting professional identity and patient expectations alongside system changes.
An energy company combined horizon scanning with cross-impact analysis to explore the transition to renewables. Horizon scanning identified signals across technology, policy, and consumer behaviour. Cross-impact analysis revealed that three trends—battery cost declines, distributed generation, and changing consumer preferences—were mutually reinforcing in ways that could accelerate transition faster than linear projections suggested.
This insight shifted investment timelines and prompted earlier action on grid infrastructure.
A consulting firm used Delphi to gather expert views on how AI would reshape professional services over 15 years. The structured process revealed strong consensus on certain impacts (document automation, knowledge management) but sharp divergence on others (client relationship models, pricing structures).
These divergence points became the basis for scenario development, helping the firm identify where strategic flexibility mattered most.
Match method to question. Horizon scanning answers "what's changing?" Delphi answers "what do experts think?" CLA answers "why does this seem inevitable?" Choose methods that address your actual uncertainty.
Combine methods deliberately. Most effective foresight work uses multiple methods in sequence: scanning feeds scenarios; scenarios inform backcasting; CLA deepens scenario narratives.
Document your process. Record not just conclusions but reasoning. When you revisit strategic decisions later, understanding why certain futures were considered (or dismissed) is invaluable.
Involve diverse perspectives. Every method benefits from cognitive diversity. Homogeneous groups produce homogeneous futures—regardless of how rigorous the methodology.
Avoid method worship. These are tools, not doctrines. Adapt methods to your context rather than forcing your challenge into a methodology's preferred shape.
Start simple. You don't need to master every method. Begin with horizon scanning and basic scenario development; add sophistication as your practice matures.
Understanding foresight methods deepens your capability across the broader domain of strategic foresight and scenario planning. These related resources explore connected concepts:
What Is Strategic Foresight? A Practical Guide for Leaders — The foundational overview of strategic foresight and its role in modern strategy work.
Scenario Planning: A Complete Guide (With Examples) — Comprehensive guide to scenario planning methodology, where many of these tools come together.
How to Create Effective Scenarios (Step-by-Step) — Practical process for building scenarios that inform strategic decisions.
Scenario Archetypes: Growth, Collapse, Constraint, Transformation — Common scenario patterns that provide useful starting points for exploration.
How to Facilitate a Scenario Workshop — Practical guidance for running sessions where these methods come to life.
Return to the parent guide: Foresight & Scenario Planning: How Strategy Leaders Prepare for Change
Start by assessing your current foresight practice. Which methods do you already use, even informally? Where are the gaps in your toolkit?
If you're new to structured foresight, begin with horizon scanning. In Portage, Trend Reports bring together curated intelligence targeted to your strategic challenges—giving you a foundation for deeper analysis without building scanning infrastructure from scratch.
From there, use the Scenario Generator to explore how identified trends might interact under different future conditions. The stress-test capability then links scenarios to your strategic objectives, revealing where current plans are robust and where they need flexibility.
Generate your first scenario set →
Foresight methods are structured tools for exploring uncertainty—not prediction techniques. Horizon scanning provides the raw material; other methods add depth and rigour. Delphi harnesses expert judgment while reducing groupthink bias. Causal Layered Analysis reveals why certain futures seem inevitable—and how to challenge those assumptions. Backcasting maps pathways from desired futures back to present-day decisions. The most effective foresight work combines multiple methods deliberately, matching tools to questions. Start with foundational methods and build sophistication as your practice matures.