You've decided to explore alternative futures. You understand the value of scenario planning. But when you sit down to actually do the work, a blank page can feel paralysing.
Where do you start? How do you structure the conversation? What should you capture?
Templates solve this problem. They provide guardrails without constraining creativity. They ensure consistency across projects and teams. And they make it far easier to communicate your thinking to stakeholders who weren't in the room.
I've developed these scenario planning templates through years of facilitation and strategy work. They're not theoretical frameworks—they're practical tools designed for people who need to move from insight to action. In this guide, you'll find downloadable templates for each stage of the scenario planning process, along with guidance on how to use them effectively.
Scenario planning templates are structured frameworks that guide you through the process of creating, analysing, and applying alternative futures to strategic decisions.
Unlike generic planning documents, these templates are specifically designed for futures work. They help you:
Capture uncertainty systematically — Identifying and prioritising the driving forces that could shape your environment Structure scenario narratives — Building coherent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold Connect futures to decisions — Translating abstract scenarios into concrete strategic implications
Good templates don't replace thinking—they channel it. They ensure you ask the right questions in the right order and capture insights in a format others can understand and build upon.
The distinction matters: a scenario planning template is not a prediction framework. It's designed to help you explore multiple possibilities, not forecast a single outcome.
Strategic foresight often struggles to influence decisions. Not because the insights lack value, but because they're poorly documented or communicated.
Without templates, scenario work tends to: Live only in the memories of workshop participants Lose nuance as it's summarised and re-summarised Become detached from the evidence that informed it Fail to connect clearly to strategic choices
With well-designed templates, you gain: Consistency across projects and teams A shared vocabulary for discussing uncertainty Documentation that survives personnel changes Clear audit trails for why decisions were made
For consultants, templates also signal professionalism. Clients trust structured processes. Deliverables built on clear frameworks are easier to defend and extend.
Templates also accelerate learning. When you've run ten scenario workshops using the same framework, you start seeing patterns. You know which prompts generate insight and which fall flat. Your craft improves.
Here are the essential templates I use for most scenario planning engagements. Each serves a specific purpose in the workflow.
Purpose: Systematically identify and categorise the external forces that could shape your strategic environment.
Structure: | Category | Driving Force | Current State | Direction of Change | Uncertainty Level | Time Horizon | |----------|---------------|---------------|---------------------|-------------------|--------------| | Political | Force name | Description | Increasing/Decreasing/Stable | High/Medium/Low | Short/Medium/Long | | Economic | | | | | | | Social | | | | | | | Technological | | | | | | | Environmental | | | | | | | Legal/Regulatory | | | | | |
How to use it: Brainstorm forces in each PESTEL category Describe current state in 1-2 sentences Assess direction and uncertainty honestly Prioritise forces with high uncertainty AND high potential impact
Tip: Don't rush this step. The quality of your scenarios depends on identifying the right driving forces. I typically spend 30-40% of workshop time here.
Purpose: Select the two most important uncertainties to form your scenario axes.
Structure:
HIGH IMPACT
|
Candidates | Priority
for Axes | Uncertainties
|
LOW ─────────────────┼───────────────── HIGH
UNCERTAINTY | UNCERTAINTY
|
Known | Monitor
Factors | (Less useful for scenarios)
|
LOW IMPACT
Selection criteria for scenario axes: Must be genuinely uncertain (reasonable people disagree on outcome) Must be highly impactful if they resolve in different directions Should be largely independent of each other Should be relevant to strategic decisions you face
Example output: Axis 1: Regulatory environment (Fragmented vs. Harmonised) Axis 2: Technology adoption rate (Rapid vs. Gradual)
Purpose: Develop coherent, vivid stories for each scenario quadrant.
For each scenario, complete:
Scenario Name: Memorable, evocative title
Tagline: One sentence capturing the essence
Narrative Summary (200-300 words): How did we get here? (Key events and turning points) What does this world look like? (Concrete details) Who wins and loses in this scenario? What surprises people most about this world?
Key Characteristics: | Domain | Description | |--------|-------------| | Market dynamics | | | Competitive landscape | | | Customer behaviour | | | Regulatory environment | | | Technology landscape | |
Early warning signals: What would we see in the next 12 months if this scenario were emerging? 2. 3.
Implications for our organisation: Opportunities: Threats: Capabilities needed:
Purpose: Evaluate potential strategies against your scenario set.
Structure:
| Strategic Option | Scenario A | Scenario B | Scenario C | Scenario D | Robustness Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Option 1 | +2 to -2 | +2 to -2 | +2 to -2 | +2 to -2 | Sum |
| Option 2 | |||||
| Option 3 |
Scoring guide: +2: Option thrives in this scenario +1: Option performs well 0: Option is neutral -1: Option struggles -2: Option fails significantly
Robustness analysis questions: Which options perform reasonably well across all scenarios? Which options are high-risk/high-reward bets on specific futures? What hedging strategies could improve resilience? Which options should we avoid entirely?
Purpose: Package scenarios for stakeholders who weren't in the room.
For each scenario:
One-page summary including: Visual representation (simple graphic or icon) 100-word narrative summary 3 key characteristics (bullet points) Strategic implications (2-3 sentences) Early warning signals (3 indicators)
Executive summary format: Why we did this work (1 paragraph) The critical uncertainties we explored (2 bullets) The four scenarios at a glance (2x2 matrix visual) Key strategic insights (3-5 bullets) Recommended actions (prioritised list)
Start messy, then structure. Use templates to capture and organise thinking, not to constrain initial brainstorming. Let ideas flow freely first.
Adapt to your context. These templates are starting points. Modify categories, add sections, or simplify based on your organisation's needs and vocabulary.
Version control matters. Date your templates and track iterations. Scenarios evolve as you learn more—preserve the history.
Don't template creativity away. The narrative development stage benefits from looseness. Use structured templates before and after the creative work, not during.
Common mistakes to avoid: Filling templates mechanically without genuine discussion Treating template completion as the goal (it's a means to decisions) Using overly complex templates that intimidate participants Neglecting to revisit and update scenarios as conditions change
Scenario planning templates are most powerful when integrated into a broader strategic foresight practice. Explore these related resources to deepen your approach:
Scenario Planning: A Complete Guide (With Examples) — Comprehensive methodology covering when and why to use scenario planning How to Create Effective Scenarios (Step-by-Step) — Detailed process for developing scenarios from scratch Scenario Archetypes: Growth, Collapse, Constraint, Transformation — Common patterns to inspire and test your scenarios How to Facilitate a Scenario Workshop — Practical guidance for running productive sessions
For the full context on how scenario planning fits into strategic foresight, see our pillar guide: Foresight & Scenario Planning: How Strategy Leaders Prepare for Change.
Ready to put these templates into practice? Here's how to start:
Download the template set — Begin with the Driving Forces Inventory for your next strategic question Run a pilot session — Test the templates with a small team before a full workshop Iterate and customise — Adapt the frameworks to your organisation's language and needs
If you want to move faster, Portage's Scenario Generator creates AI-generated future scenarios based on trend intelligence you've already gathered. It automates much of the initial analysis work, letting you focus on the strategic thinking that matters most. Combined with Trend Reports and stress-testing capabilities, you can move from signals to scenarios to strategic clarity in a single workflow.
Generate your first scenario set →
Templates structure thinking without constraining it — They guide you through the right questions in the right order Five core templates cover the scenario planning workflow — Driving forces, uncertainty selection, narratives, strategy assessment, and communication Quality inputs determine quality scenarios — Invest time in driving forces analysis Documentation enables decisions — Templates capture reasoning others can follow and build upon Adapt to context — Modify these frameworks for your organisation's specific needs Templates accelerate expertise — Consistent frameworks let you learn and improve across engagements