When strategy teams talk about trends, they often treat them as monolithic forces—big, abstract concepts that either threaten or promise opportunity. But trends don't materialise from nowhere. They emerge from a layered system of observable signals, underlying drivers, and deep structural forces.
Understanding these building blocks transforms how you work with change. Instead of reacting to surface-level noise, you learn to read the deeper patterns. Instead of chasing every new development, you identify which changes carry strategic weight.
This guide breaks down the components that constitute trends: what they are, how they interact, and how to use them in your strategic work. Whether you're building a trend radar, assessing competitive dynamics, or planning for uncertainty, this foundational knowledge shapes every analysis that follows.
Think of trends as icebergs. What most people see—the news headlines, the emerging technologies, the shifting consumer behaviours—represents only the visible tip. Beneath the surface lie the mechanisms that create and sustain change.
Indicators are observable data points and signals that suggest something is changing. They're the evidence you can point to—statistics, events, announcements, or behaviours that demonstrate a shift is occurring. A single indicator might be noise; multiple indicators pointing the same direction suggest a pattern worth investigating.
Drivers are the mechanisms that propel change forward. They answer the question: "What's making this happen?" Drivers include things like technological breakthroughs, regulatory shifts, demographic changes, or evolving customer expectations. They're the engines behind movement.
Forces are the deep, structural conditions that shape what's possible. These operate at a foundational level—economic systems, cultural values, geopolitical realities, environmental constraints. Forces don't change quickly, but they determine the boundaries within which drivers operate and trends emerge.
The distinction matters because each layer requires different analytical approaches and suggests different strategic responses.
Most strategic analysis stays at the surface. Teams spot an emerging trend, debate whether it's relevant, and either react or dismiss it. This approach creates two problems.
First, surface-level analysis can't distinguish signal from noise. Without understanding what drives a trend, you can't assess its durability. A behaviour change driven by a temporary condition will fade; one propelled by structural forces will accelerate.
Second, surface-level analysis limits your response options. When you understand the drivers behind a trend, you can engage with those drivers directly—not just adapt to their effects. You move from reactive to proactive.
Consider the shift toward remote work. The indicator was obvious: millions suddenly working from home. But strategic response depended on understanding the drivers (technology enabling distributed collaboration, changing worker expectations, cost pressures on real estate) and the forces (long-term urbanisation patterns, generational values about work-life integration). Some organisations treated it as a temporary adjustment. Others recognised the structural nature of the shift and redesigned their operations accordingly.
The ability to read beneath the surface separates strategic foresight from trend-chasing.
Begin by collecting concrete evidence of change. Indicators should be: Observable: You can point to specific data, events, or behaviours Measurable: Where possible, quantifiable or at least trackable over time Multiple: A single data point means little; patterns across indicators suggest substance
For example, if you're examining shifts in consumer trust, indicators might include: survey data on brand trust levels, growth in peer-review platforms, regulatory action on data privacy, or the rise of certification schemes.
Tip: Cast a wide net initially. Portage's Trend Database provides curated foresight signals organised by domain, which accelerates this collection phase.
For each cluster of indicators, ask: "What mechanisms are creating this change?"
Drivers typically fall into categories: Technological: New capabilities enabling new behaviours or economics Economic: Cost structures, incentives, or resource availability shifting Regulatory: Policy changes creating constraints or opportunities Social: Changing values, expectations, or demographic compositions Competitive: Market dynamics or industry structure evolving
A single trend often has multiple drivers. The shift toward plant-based diets, for instance, involves health awareness (social), environmental concern (social/regulatory), improved product quality (technological), and mainstream distribution (competitive).
Tip: Map drivers explicitly. When you document your reasoning, you create a testable hypothesis about causation—not just correlation.
Forces operate at a deeper, slower level. They're the constraints and enablers that shape what drivers can accomplish.
Key force categories include: Demographic: Population structure, age distribution, migration patterns Environmental: Climate conditions, resource availability, ecological limits Geopolitical: Power distributions, alliance structures, territorial dynamics Cultural: Deep values, belief systems, institutional norms Economic systems: Capitalism variants, monetary systems, trade architectures
Understanding forces helps you assess a driver's longevity. A driver aligned with structural forces has momentum behind it; one working against deep forces faces headwinds.
Trends gain power when multiple drivers reinforce each other, and when those drivers align with structural forces.
Map the relationships: Which drivers amplify each other? Which forces enable or constrain specific drivers? Are there feedback loops that could accelerate change?
The electrification of transport, for example, involves technological drivers (battery costs declining), regulatory drivers (emissions standards tightening), and economic drivers (total cost of ownership improving). These reinforce each other. And they align with structural forces: urbanisation favouring shorter trips, climate imperatives, and generational values on sustainability.
Once you've mapped the building blocks, stress-test your analysis. What conditions would accelerate the trend? What could stall or reverse it?
Portage's Scenario Generator helps you explore alternative futures and model how different conditions might affect your trend analysis. This turns a static assessment into a dynamic strategic tool.
Record the chain from indicators through drivers to forces. This serves multiple purposes: Creates accountability for your reasoning Enables updating as new evidence emerges Supports communication with stakeholders Builds institutional memory across projects
Indicators: Growth in co-working space bookings, increase in remote job listings, declining commuter traffic in major cities, expansion of video collaboration platforms.
Drivers: Technological: Cloud computing and collaboration tools mature Economic: Commercial real estate costs pressure organisations Social: Worker expectations shift toward flexibility Regulatory: Some jurisdictions introduce right-to-disconnect legislation
Forces: Demographic: Younger workforce with different work-life priorities Urbanisation patterns creating housing affordability challenges Climate pressures favouring reduced commuting
Strategic implication: Organisations recognising the structural nature invested in distributed work capabilities, not just remote work policies. They redesigned processes, culture, and real estate strategy—not just IT infrastructure.
Indicators: Growth in wearable device adoption, expansion of direct-to-consumer health testing, personalised nutrition services emerging, healthcare apps usage surging.
Drivers: Technological: Sensors, AI, and data analytics enabling individualised insights Economic: Healthcare cost pressures driving preventive approaches Social: Rising health consciousness and self-optimisation culture Regulatory: Data portability requirements emerging
Forces: Ageing populations increasing health system pressure Cultural shift toward individual responsibility for wellness Digital literacy enabling self-service health management
Strategic implication: Companies positioned at the intersection of data, health, and consumer experience captured value. Traditional healthcare organisations faced disruption from consumer-tech entrants who understood the driver stack.
Start broad, then focus: Begin by mapping many potential indicators and drivers before narrowing to those most strategically relevant. Premature focus creates blind spots.
Distinguish correlation from causation: Just because indicators cluster doesn't mean they share drivers. Test your hypotheses about the mechanisms creating change.
Watch for driver conflicts: Sometimes drivers push in opposite directions. Regulatory pressures might constrain what technology enables. These tensions create uncertainty worth modelling.
Revisit your force assumptions: Forces feel permanent, but they do shift—just slowly. Periodically question whether structural conditions you've assumed as fixed are actually evolving.
Avoid single-driver explanations: Complex trends rarely have simple causes. If your analysis points to one driver, you've probably oversimplified.
Use frameworks consistently: Whether you use STEEP, PESTLE, or another taxonomy, apply it consistently across analyses. This enables comparison and pattern recognition over time.
Understanding indicators, drivers, and forces provides the foundation for several connected capabilities in strategic foresight work.
Signals vs Trends: A Modern Foresight Framework — Clarify the relationship between early signals and established trends, and how indicator analysis supports signal interpretation.
How to Build a Trend Radar: A Complete Guide — Apply your understanding of trend building blocks to create a comprehensive trend radar that informs strategic decisions.
Trend Clustering Techniques (With Examples) — Learn methods for grouping indicators and related trends into meaningful clusters that reveal strategic patterns.
Trend Taxonomies: Classifying Change Effectively — Explore frameworks for categorising drivers and forces systematically across your foresight work.
How to Evaluate Trend Impact (Opportunities, Risks, Uncertainties) — Use your driver and force analysis to assess which trends warrant strategic response.
Parent Pillar: Signals, Trends & Strategic Intelligence — Return to the complete framework for signal-driven strategy.
Start applying this framework in your next strategy session. Pick a trend you're currently tracking and work backwards: What indicators support it? What drivers are propelling it? What forces shape its trajectory?
Portage's Trend Reports can accelerate this analysis by gathering research targeted to your key challenges, bringing together curated trends, your uploaded files, and insights from across the web. Generate your first Trend Radar to see how structured foresight turns scattered signals into strategic intelligence.
Trends have structure: Indicators, drivers, and forces form a layered system you can analyse systematically.
Indicators are evidence: Observable data points that demonstrate change is occurring—look for patterns across multiple indicators.
Drivers explain mechanisms: They answer "what's making this happen?" and fall into technological, economic, regulatory, social, and competitive categories.
Forces set boundaries: Deep structural conditions—demographic, environmental, geopolitical, cultural—that determine what drivers can accomplish.
Alignment creates momentum: Trends powered by multiple reinforcing drivers, aligned with structural forces, carry the most strategic weight.
Document your reasoning: Recording the logic chain from indicators through drivers to forces creates testable hypotheses and builds institutional memory.