Every strategy leader faces the same uncomfortable truth: the future refuses to cooperate with our plans. Markets shift, technologies emerge, competitors pivot, and global events rewrite the rules overnight. Yet organisations still need direction. Teams still need clarity. Decisions still need to be made.
Strategy under uncertainty isn't about predicting the unpredictable. It's about building the capacity to act decisively while remaining responsive to change. This requires a fundamental shift in how we think about strategic planning—moving from detailed long-term forecasts to flexible approaches that embrace ambiguity.
In this guide, I'll walk you through the principles and practices that enable effective strategy when certainty is scarce. You'll learn how to structure decisions, test assumptions, and build strategies that remain useful even as conditions change. Whether you're navigating industry disruption, entering new markets, or simply tired of plans that become obsolete before the ink dries, this approach offers a more honest and effective way forward.
Strategy under uncertainty refers to the practice of developing and executing strategic direction when reliable predictions about the future are impossible. Rather than assuming we can forecast outcomes with precision, this approach acknowledges that multiple futures are possible and designs strategy accordingly.
The concept draws a critical distinction from traditional strategic planning. Conventional approaches often begin with forecasts—market projections, competitive analysis, demand curves—and build plans that assume these predictions will prove accurate. Strategy under uncertainty instead starts with the recognition that our forecasts are inherently limited, particularly in complex, fast-changing environments.
This doesn't mean abandoning analysis or acting randomly. It means:
Identifying what we genuinely know versus what we're assuming Mapping the range of plausible futures rather than betting on a single prediction Designing strategies that perform reasonably well across multiple scenarios rather than optimally in just one Building mechanisms to detect change early and respond quickly
For example, a company expanding into a new region might traditionally build a detailed five-year plan based on market research. Under uncertainty, they'd instead identify key assumptions (regulatory stability, consumer adoption rates, competitive response), develop scenarios around how these might unfold, and create a strategy with clear decision points tied to emerging evidence.
The goal isn't to eliminate uncertainty—that's impossible. The goal is to make better decisions despite it.
The stakes for getting this right have never been higher. Organisations that cling to rigid plans in volatile environments don't just underperform—they get caught flat-footed when conditions shift. Consider the retailers who dismissed e-commerce, the energy companies slow to recognise the renewables transition, or the countless businesses whose pandemic response plans were worthless because they assumed a single scenario.
When leaders pretend certainty exists where it doesn't, several things go wrong:
Resource misallocation. Organisations invest heavily in futures that may never materialise while neglecting capabilities they'll actually need.
Strategic brittleness. Plans optimised for one scenario crumble when reality diverges—often suddenly and without warning.
Delayed response. Without mechanisms to detect change, organisations notice shifts too late to respond effectively.
Lost credibility. Teams learn to distrust strategic plans that repeatedly prove wrong, undermining future alignment efforts.
Conversely, organisations that master strategy under uncertainty gain distinct advantages:
They spot emerging opportunities and threats earlier They maintain strategic direction while adapting tactics They make faster decisions because they've already considered alternatives They build confidence in their stakeholders through transparent reasoning
This isn't about becoming cautious or non-committal. It's about being strategically honest—making clear-eyed bets while remaining responsive to new information.
Developing effective strategy under uncertainty requires a structured approach. The following process helps you move from paralysis to purposeful action, even when the future remains unclear.
Before grappling with uncertainty, establish what you're fundamentally trying to achieve. What outcomes matter most? What values will guide decisions? What capabilities must you build regardless of how the future unfolds?
Strategic intent provides an anchor. It's not a detailed destination but a direction—flexible enough to accommodate multiple paths but clear enough to guide choices.
Tip: Express strategic intent in terms of capabilities and positions rather than specific outcomes. "Become the trusted partner for sustainable supply chain transformation" offers more flexibility than "Achieve 30% market share in sector X by 2027."
Not all unknowns are equally important. Focus on uncertainties that are both high-impact and genuinely unpredictable. These typically fall into categories:
Market uncertainties: Customer behaviour, demand patterns, pricing dynamics Competitive uncertainties: New entrants, competitor moves, industry consolidation Technological uncertainties: Adoption rates, capability shifts, disruption timing Regulatory/political uncertainties: Policy changes, trade dynamics, regulatory frameworks Operational uncertainties: Supply chain stability, talent availability, cost structures
Map these uncertainties and assess which ones would most significantly affect your strategic choices. These become the focal points for scenario development and stress testing.
Scenarios aren't predictions—they're structured stories about how the future might unfold. Effective scenarios help you think through implications you'd otherwise miss and prepare for a range of possibilities.
Build 3-5 distinct scenarios that: Are internally consistent and plausible Represent meaningfully different futures (not just variations on a theme) Challenge your current assumptions Are vivid enough to engage stakeholders
For each scenario, describe the driving forces, how events unfold, and what the world looks like for your organisation.
Using Portage's Scenario Generator, you can develop AI-assisted scenarios that explore alternative futures systematically, ensuring you're considering possibilities beyond your immediate assumptions.
With scenarios in hand, test your current or proposed strategy against each one. Ask:
How does this strategy perform if Scenario A unfolds? Scenario B? What assumptions must hold true for this strategy to succeed? Where are the vulnerabilities? The unexpected opportunities? What decisions would we regret if conditions shifted?
This isn't about finding the "right" scenario. It's about understanding how your strategy performs across the range of plausible futures and identifying where it might break.
Stress tests linked to your strategic objectives help you identify risks and opportunities early, building more resilient strategies before you're forced to react under pressure.
Rather than committing fully to a single path, design a portfolio of strategic options:
Core strategy: Actions to take regardless of which future unfolds—investments in capabilities, positions, or relationships that have value across scenarios.
Contingent moves: Prepared responses to specific triggers. "If X happens, we will Y." These aren't vague intentions but defined actions tied to observable signals.
Insurance investments: Smaller bets that protect against downside scenarios or create upside optionality.
The goal is to maintain strategic direction while preserving flexibility. You're not hedging endlessly—you're making smart commitments with built-in adaptability.
Define the signals that would indicate which scenario is becoming more likely. These signposts serve as an early warning system:
What leading indicators should we monitor? What data would confirm or challenge our key assumptions? What thresholds would trigger a strategy reassessment?
Assign ownership for monitoring these signals and establish regular review rhythms. Strategy under uncertainty isn't a one-time exercise—it's an ongoing practice.
Finally, create mechanisms to capture learning and feed it back into strategic decision-making. This includes:
Regular scenario reviews (are our scenarios still relevant?) Assumption tracking (which assumptions have been validated or invalidated?) Decision retrospectives (what did we learn from recent strategic choices?) Continuous trend monitoring (what new signals are emerging?)
Strategy Boards in Portage help you document this reasoning and maintain visibility across your team, creating institutional memory as your strategy evolves.
A healthcare technology company wanted to expand into Southeast Asian markets but faced significant uncertainty about regulatory frameworks for digital health products. Rather than betting on a single country, they:
Mapped three scenarios: rapid regulatory harmonisation, fragmented national approaches, and restrictive digital sovereignty Identified "no regret" investments: building regional partnerships and adapting their platform for local languages Defined contingent moves: prepared market entry playbooks for different regulatory outcomes Established signposts: tracked regulatory developments and pilot programme results
When one market moved faster than expected toward favourable regulations, they were positioned to accelerate. When another tightened restrictions, they had already prepared alternative approaches.
An industrial manufacturer faced uncertainty about which automation technologies would become dominant. They avoided betting everything on a single technology platform by:
Developing scenarios around different technology trajectories Investing in modular architectures that could accommodate multiple solutions Running pilot programmes across several technologies simultaneously Creating clear decision criteria for when to commit more fully
This approach cost more than an early all-in bet would have, but it protected against the risk of backing the wrong technology—a risk that had burned competitors.
An independent strategy consultancy faced uncertainty about how AI would reshape their industry. They stress-tested their current positioning against scenarios ranging from "AI as tool" to "AI as competitor" and identified:
Core capabilities to strengthen regardless of outcome (client relationships, industry expertise, complex facilitation) Contingent investments (AI integration capabilities, new service lines) Decision triggers (client adoption rates, competitive moves)
This structured approach replaced anxious speculation with purposeful preparation.
Start with what you can control. Focus initial effort on decisions you need to make now. Use scenarios to inform immediate choices, not just distant planning.
Avoid scenario paralysis. The goal isn't to consider every possibility but to stretch your thinking beyond the default assumption. Three well-developed scenarios beat ten superficial ones.
Make assumptions explicit. Write down what you're assuming about the future. This makes it easier to track which assumptions hold and which need revisiting.
Separate levels of uncertainty. Some uncertainties can be bounded with research; others are genuinely unknowable. Match your approach to the type of uncertainty you face.
Involve diverse perspectives. Scenarios developed by a homogeneous group tend to reflect shared blind spots. Include voices from different functions, backgrounds, and viewpoints.
Revisit regularly. Strategy under uncertainty isn't a one-time exercise. Build scenario review into your strategic rhythm—quarterly at minimum in fast-moving environments.
Strategy under uncertainty is one component of building adaptive strategic capability. These related topics deepen your understanding and application:
What Is Adaptive Strategy? A Complete Guide — The broader framework for strategy that learns and evolves over time.
Why Traditional Strategy Breaks in Fast-Moving Environments — Understanding why conventional planning approaches fail and what to do instead.
Designing Strategy Loops: Continuous Learning in Practice — How to build feedback mechanisms that keep your strategy responsive.
How to Build a 'Strategy That Learns' Using Feedback Loops — Practical implementation guide for embedding learning into strategic processes.
Strategy in Complex Systems — Deeper exploration of complexity thinking, sensemaking, and nonlinear dynamics in strategy.
Parent Pillar: Adaptive Strategy: A Strategy That Learns — The comprehensive guide to building strategic capability that evolves with changing conditions.
Strategy under uncertainty starts with acknowledging what you don't know—and building processes to work productively with that ambiguity.
If you're ready to apply these principles, start by identifying the two or three uncertainties that most significantly affect your current strategic choices. Map the range of plausible outcomes and ask how your strategy performs across them.
Portage's Scenario Generator and Stress Tests help you work through this process systematically. You can generate alternative futures, test your strategic options against them, and capture your reasoning on Strategy Boards—creating a living record that evolves as conditions change.
Map your strategy loop in Portage and move from static plans to adaptive strategy that learns.
Uncertainty isn't a problem to solve but a condition to navigate. Stop waiting for clarity and build processes that work despite ambiguity.
Scenarios expand thinking, not predict outcomes. Use them to stress-test strategies and identify vulnerabilities you'd otherwise miss.
Strategic options beat strategic bets. Design core moves, contingent responses, and insurance investments rather than committing everything to a single path.
Signposts enable faster response. Define the signals that indicate which future is emerging and establish triggers for strategic reassessment.
Learning loops close the gap between strategy and reality. Build mechanisms to capture insights and feed them back into decision-making.
Strategy under uncertainty is a practice, not a project. Make scenario review and assumption tracking part of your ongoing strategic rhythm.