Strategy work has never been more demanding. Markets shift overnight. Signals contradict each other. Data floods in faster than teams can process it. In this environment, the ability to make sense of what's happening—before deciding what to do—becomes a critical strategic capability.
Yet most strategy processes skip this step entirely. Teams jump from data to decision, missing the interpretive work that separates good strategy from reactive guesswork.
This is where sensemaking comes in.
Sensemaking is the process of organising ambiguous information into coherent understanding. It's how strategy teams move from "what on earth is happening?" to "here's what this means for us." In this primer, you'll learn what sensemaking actually involves, why it matters for strategic work, and how to build it into your team's practice—step by step.
Sensemaking is the cognitive and social process of creating shared understanding from ambiguous, uncertain, or novel situations. Unlike analysis, which assumes the problem is already framed, sensemaking addresses the prior question: What kind of situation are we actually facing?
The term was popularised by organisational theorist Karl Weick, who studied how people construct meaning in complex environments—from aircraft carrier crews to firefighting teams. His insight: in uncertain conditions, interpretation precedes action. We act based on what we think is happening, not what is objectively true.
For strategy teams, sensemaking involves three distinct activities:
Noticing — Identifying relevant signals, patterns, and anomalies in your environment Interpreting — Constructing plausible explanations for what those signals mean Enacting — Testing your interpretation through action and adjusting based on feedback
Sensemaking is not the same as data analysis or forecasting. Analysis works when categories are clear and data is structured. Forecasting assumes stable patterns that extend into the future. Sensemaking applies when neither assumption holds—when the situation is genuinely novel, when categories are contested, and when the future is uncertain.
This distinction matters. When teams apply analytical tools to sensemaking problems, they get precise answers to the wrong questions. When they apply sensemaking to analytical problems, they waste time on interpretation when calculation would suffice.
Strategic decisions are increasingly made under conditions of ambiguity. Competitive boundaries blur. Customer behaviour shifts unpredictably. Technological disruption creates new categories while destroying old ones.
In this context, the greatest risk isn't making the wrong decision—it's misunderstanding the situation entirely.
Consider what's at stake:
Without sensemaking, teams mistake novelty for familiarity. They apply yesterday's playbook to today's challenge, missing signals that the game has changed. By the time the error becomes visible, competitors have moved.
Without sensemaking, conflicting data paralyses decision-making. When signals point in different directions, teams without interpretive frameworks either freeze or default to the loudest voice in the room.
Without sensemaking, strategy becomes disconnected from reality. Plans built on unexamined assumptions look coherent on paper but shatter on contact with actual conditions.
Teams that develop sensemaking capability gain three advantages:
Faster orientation. They recognise patterns earlier and frame situations more accurately. Better collective judgment. Shared interpretation aligns teams around coherent action. Adaptive capacity. They update their understanding as conditions evolve, rather than defending outdated positions.
In fast-moving environments, the ability to make sense of change becomes more valuable than the ability to predict it.
Sensemaking isn't a one-time event—it's a continuous practice woven into how teams observe, discuss, and decide. Here's how to build it into your strategic workflow.
Sensemaking starts with raw material. The quality of your interpretation depends on the breadth and diversity of signals you're working with.
Cast a wide net. Look beyond your industry for weak signals—early indicators of change that haven't yet reached your core market. Scan for anomalies: things that don't fit your current model of how the world works.
Practical tip: Create a shared repository for signals that anyone on the team can contribute to. Include customer conversations, competitor moves, regulatory shifts, and cultural trends. Resist the urge to filter too early—ambiguity is the raw material of sensemaking.
In Portage, the Trend Database provides a structured foresight library with curated signals and AI-generated summaries. This gives teams a shared foundation for interpretation without starting from scratch.
Every interpretation rests on assumptions—about how markets work, what competitors will do, what customers value. These assumptions are often invisible until they're wrong.
Before interpreting new signals, make your existing mental models explicit. What do you believe to be true about your environment? What would have to change for your current strategy to fail?
Practical tip: Run a "pre-mortem" exercise. Imagine your strategy has failed spectacularly. Work backwards to identify which assumptions proved wrong. This reveals blind spots before they become expensive.
The trap of sensemaking is premature closure—settling on one explanation before exploring alternatives. Strong sensemaking requires holding multiple interpretations simultaneously.
When you encounter an ambiguous signal, generate at least three plausible explanations. What if this is a leading indicator? What if it's noise? What if it's the beginning of a larger pattern?
Practical tip: Use the "three interpretations" rule. For any significant signal, require the team to articulate three different explanations before converging on one. This builds cognitive flexibility and reduces groupthink.
Interpretations gain credibility when they survive stress tests. Scenarios provide a structured way to explore how your interpretation holds up under different future conditions.
Build 2-4 distinct scenarios representing plausible futures. For each scenario, ask: Does our interpretation still make sense? What would we see if this scenario were unfolding?
Portage's Scenario Generator helps teams explore alternative futures and model strategic impact. By linking scenarios to your board objectives, you can stress-test interpretations before committing resources.
Sensemaking doesn't end with interpretation. It culminates in action—but action understood as a form of inquiry.
Every strategic decision is a hypothesis about the world. When you act, you create feedback that either confirms or challenges your interpretation. Build learning loops into your execution: What did we expect to happen? What actually happened? What does that tell us?
Practical tip: Document not just decisions, but the reasoning behind them. What interpretation drove this choice? What evidence would cause you to update? This creates institutional memory and enables genuine learning.
Strategy Boards in Portage are designed for exactly this purpose—documenting strategic rationale alongside decisions, so teams can trace their reasoning and adapt as conditions change.
A national retailer noticed online sales surging while store traffic declined—but not uniformly. Some regions showed the opposite pattern. The initial interpretation: "We're behind on digital transformation."
Through structured sensemaking, the strategy team generated alternative explanations. What if the pattern reflected demographic shifts rather than channel preference? What if store traffic decline correlated with specific competitive moves?
Investigation revealed that regions with declining store traffic also had new competitor openings nearby. The signal wasn't about digital transformation—it was about competitive response. The insight shifted resource allocation from a blanket digital push to targeted store differentiation.
A strategy consultancy noticed clients increasingly asking for "agile strategy" rather than traditional strategic plans. Initial interpretation: "The market wants shorter engagements."
By exploring alternative interpretations, the team identified a deeper pattern. Clients weren't asking for less strategy—they were asking for strategy that adapted. The demand was for ongoing strategic partnership, not one-off deliverables.
This reframe led to a new service model: strategy-as-a-relationship rather than strategy-as-a-project. Revenue per client increased as engagements lengthened.
A B2B software company tracked competitor announcements religiously but missed a pattern in customer support tickets. Buried in routine complaints were early signals that a new use case was emerging—customers were repurposing the product in ways the roadmap didn't anticipate.
By bringing support data into strategic sensemaking sessions, the team recognised the opportunity before competitors. They accelerated features supporting the emergent use case and captured a new market segment.
1. Schedule sensemaking time. Interpretation takes cognitive space. Block regular sessions dedicated to asking "what are we seeing?" rather than "what should we do?"
2. Include diverse perspectives. Sensemaking benefits from cognitive diversity. Include people with different roles, backgrounds, and information sources.
3. Separate noticing from judging. When gathering signals, resist evaluating them. Judgment comes later—premature filtering eliminates weak signals before they're understood.
4. Tolerate ambiguity longer than feels comfortable. The urge to resolve uncertainty quickly is strong. Better interpretations emerge when teams sit with ambiguity before converging.
5. Document your interpretations. Write down what you think is happening and why. This creates accountability and enables learning when interpretations prove wrong.
6. Avoid the "single story" trap. When one interpretation dominates, actively seek disconfirming evidence. What would we expect to see if this interpretation were wrong?
Sensemaking is one capability within a broader approach to adaptive strategy—building strategy that learns and evolves. Explore these related topics to deepen your practice:
What Is Adaptive Strategy? A Complete Guide — Understand the principles of strategy that adapts to changing conditions.
Why Traditional Strategy Breaks in Fast-Moving Environments — The case against static planning and what to do instead.
Strategy Under Uncertainty: A Modern Approach — Frameworks for developing strategy when the future is unclear.
How to Build a 'Strategy That Learns' Using Feedback Loops — Practical guide to implementing learning loops in your process.
Strategy in Complex Systems — Applying Cynefin and complexity thinking to strategic challenges.
For a complete overview of adaptive strategy principles and practices, see the parent guide: Adaptive Strategy: A Strategy That Learns.
Start building sensemaking into your next strategy session. Pick one ambiguous signal your team has been discussing and apply the three interpretations rule—generate three distinct explanations before converging.
To make sensemaking a repeatable capability, you need structured tools for capturing signals, testing interpretations, and documenting reasoning.
Map your strategy loop in Portage. Use Strategy Boards to document your strategic logic alongside decisions. Link scenarios from the Scenario Generator to stress-test your interpretations. Build learning loops that connect action to insight.
The goal isn't perfect foresight. It's developing a practice that helps your team make sense of change—continuously, collaboratively, and with clarity.
Sensemaking is interpretation before action. It addresses "what kind of situation is this?" rather than jumping straight to "what should we do?"
Three activities define sensemaking: noticing signals, interpreting their meaning, and testing interpretations through action.
Sensemaking prevents strategic misfires. Teams that skip interpretation risk applying yesterday's playbook to novel challenges.
Generate multiple interpretations. Require at least three explanations before converging to reduce groupthink and blind spots.
Test interpretations against scenarios. Stress-test your understanding before committing resources.
Document your reasoning. Strategic decisions are hypotheses. Recording the logic behind them enables genuine learning as conditions evolve.