Traditional strategic planning assumes you can predict the future with reasonable confidence. But what happens when markets shift overnight, new competitors emerge from unexpected directions, or external shocks reshape entire industries?
If you've felt the frustration of watching a carefully crafted plan become obsolete within months, you're not alone. Volatility isn't an exception anymore—it's the operating environment for most organisations.
This guide explores planning approaches designed specifically for uncertain conditions. You'll learn how to build flexibility into your planning process, make decisions despite incomplete information, and create strategies that adapt as circumstances change. These aren't theoretical frameworks—they're practical methods used by strategists navigating real-world complexity.
The goal isn't to eliminate uncertainty (you can't), but to develop planning practices that remain useful even when your assumptions prove wrong.
Planning in volatile environments requires a fundamental shift in mindset. Rather than creating a single, detailed roadmap, you're building a decision-making system that helps you navigate changing conditions.
Traditional planning asks: "What will happen, and how should we respond?"
Volatile-environment planning asks: "What might happen, and how can we prepare for multiple possibilities?"
This distinction matters because volatile environments share common characteristics: Rapid change: Conditions shift faster than planning cycles Interconnected forces: Changes in one area cascade unpredictably Incomplete information: You must decide before you have full clarity Multiple plausible futures: Several very different outcomes remain possible
The planning approaches that work in these conditions share common traits: shorter cycles, explicit assumptions, built-in flexibility, and continuous environmental monitoring. They treat planning as an ongoing discipline rather than a periodic event.
Importantly, planning for volatility isn't about abandoning rigour. It's about applying rigour differently—focusing on decision quality rather than prediction accuracy.
The cost of getting this wrong is significant. Organisations that cling to rigid planning approaches in volatile conditions face predictable problems:
Paralysis: Teams delay decisions waiting for clarity that never arrives, losing competitive position while competitors act.
Brittle strategies: Plans that depend on specific conditions fail completely when those conditions don't materialise—there's no graceful degradation.
Wasted resources: Detailed plans consume significant effort to create, yet become obsolete before implementation completes.
Misaligned organisations: When plans can't adapt, teams either follow outdated directives or improvise without coordination.
Conversely, organisations that master volatile-environment planning gain real advantages. They make faster, more confident decisions. They spot opportunities while competitors are still processing what happened. They build resilience—not just surviving disruption but capitalising on it.
For strategy leaders and consultants, this capability has become essential. Clients no longer accept plans that assume stable conditions. They need approaches that acknowledge uncertainty while still providing actionable direction.
Long-range detailed plans lose value quickly in volatile environments. Instead, work with layered time horizons:
Near-term (0-6 months): Specific actions and commitments Medium-term (6-18 months): Directional choices and conditional plans Long-term (18+ months): Strategic intent and scenario preparation
This layered approach lets you maintain clarity about immediate actions while preserving flexibility for longer timeframes. You're not planning less—you're distributing planning effort more appropriately.
Practical tip: Review and refresh plans quarterly at minimum. In highly volatile conditions, monthly strategic check-ins may be necessary.
Every strategic plan rests on assumptions about the future. In volatile environments, these assumptions need to be visible and testable:
Document the key assumptions underlying your strategy Identify which assumptions are most critical to success Define observable signals that would indicate an assumption is breaking down Assign responsibility for monitoring these signals
When you make assumptions explicit, you transform planning from prediction into hypothesis testing. You know exactly what to watch, and you can update quickly when evidence contradicts your assumptions.
Example: A retail strategy might assume "consumer preference for in-store experience will recover post-pandemic." The signal to monitor might be foot traffic trends in comparable markets. If that assumption fails, you've already identified which strategic elements need revision.
Rather than committing fully to a single path, identify strategic options you can exercise depending on how conditions develop:
Preserve flexibility: Delay irreversible commitments where possible Stage investments: Structure major initiatives with decision gates Develop contingencies: Prepare alternative approaches for different scenarios Invest in capabilities: Build skills and assets useful across multiple futures
This isn't about avoiding commitment—it's about committing intelligently. Some decisions must be made early. Others can wait until you have better information.
Practical tip: For each major strategic initiative, ask: "What would we do if this doesn't work?" Having an answer before you start isn't pessimism—it's prudent planning.
Volatile environments require ongoing attention to external conditions. Build systematic scanning into your planning process:
Identify the external forces most relevant to your strategy Create a structured approach to monitoring trends and signals Establish regular rhythms for reviewing environmental intelligence Connect scanning insights directly to planning conversations
Environmental scanning in Portage works through the Environmental Scan node and Trend Reports, which help you gather and organise relevant signals. But whatever tools you use, the principle remains: you can't navigate volatility if you're not paying attention to what's changing.
In volatile environments, calendar-based planning reviews often come too late. Instead, define specific conditions that trigger strategic reassessment:
Threshold triggers: "If market share drops below X, we revisit our positioning strategy" Signal triggers: "If competitor Y enters our market, we activate contingency plan B" Assumption triggers: "If our cost assumptions prove wrong by more than 15%, we reassess the investment case"
These triggers ensure you respond to actual conditions rather than arbitrary schedules. They also help your team understand when flexibility ends and action begins.
How you communicate plans matters as much as the plans themselves. In volatile environments:
Share the scenarios and assumptions underlying strategic choices Distinguish between committed actions and conditional plans Be clear about what you know, what you're assuming, and what remains genuinely uncertain Update stakeholders when conditions or plans change
This transparency builds trust and alignment. Teams perform better when they understand the reasoning behind strategic direction—and when they know that direction will adapt to new information.
A mid-sized software company faced uncertainty about whether to prioritise mobile or desktop development as user behaviour shifted. Rather than betting everything on one platform, they:
Structured their product roadmap in 90-day cycles Defined clear metrics for user adoption on each platform Built their core architecture to work across both environments Established triggers: "If mobile usage exceeds 40% of total, we shift 70% of development resources to mobile-first features"
When mobile adoption accelerated faster than expected, they pivoted quickly—not because they'd predicted it, but because they'd prepared for the possibility.
An independent consultancy faced unpredictable project pipelines as client budgets fluctuated. Their approach:
Maintained a portfolio of project types: long-term retainers, short engagements, and on-demand work Kept fixed costs low while developing capacity to scale up quickly Monitored economic indicators that historically predicted client spending Built scenario models for different revenue environments, with clear actions for each
This allowed them to weather downturns without crisis while capturing growth opportunities when conditions improved.
Start with what you can control. Even in volatile environments, some factors are stable. Anchor your planning around your core capabilities and values—these provide continuity while external conditions shift.
Embrace "good enough" decisions. Waiting for perfect information often means waiting too long. Develop comfort with making the best decision you can with available information, then adjusting.
Separate signals from noise. Not every change matters. Focus your monitoring on forces that could genuinely affect your strategic choices, and ignore the rest.
Build planning muscles, not just plans. The organisations that navigate volatility best treat planning as a continuous capability, not an annual event. Regular practice improves judgment.
Avoid the extremes. Neither rigid long-term planning nor pure improvisation works. Find the balance that fits your context—enough structure to align effort, enough flexibility to adapt.
Document your reasoning. When plans change, understanding why you made original decisions helps you make better adjustments. Capture the logic, not just the conclusions.
Volatile-environment planning connects to broader strategic planning disciplines. Understanding these related areas will deepen your capability:
The Strategic Planning Process: A Practical Overview: Understand the foundational process before adapting it for volatility. How to Conduct an Environmental Scan: Master the scanning techniques that feed volatile-environment planning. Techniques of Environmental Scanning: Explore specific methods for monitoring your strategic landscape. Strategic Planning Best Practices (2025 Edition): See how these volatile-environment approaches fit within broader best practices. Limitations of Strategic Planning in a Dynamic World: Understand when and why traditional approaches fall short.
For a comprehensive view of strategic planning frameworks, see the parent pillar: Strategic Planning Frameworks & Methods: The Modern Toolkit.
Start by examining your current planning approach. Where do you assume stability that may not exist? What assumptions remain implicit? How quickly could you update your plans if conditions changed tomorrow?
If you'd like to build these practices into your strategic process, Portage's Strategy Boards provide a structured environment for developing adaptive plans. The Environmental Scan node helps you identify the external forces most relevant to your strategy, while Trend Reports deliver ongoing intelligence to inform your planning.
Begin a strategic plan in Portage and see how integrated environmental scanning and scenario tools support planning that works even when conditions don't cooperate.
Shorten planning horizons and use layered timeframes—specific near-term, directional medium-term, flexible long-term. Make assumptions explicit so you know exactly what to monitor and when to adapt. Build strategic options that preserve flexibility while maintaining forward progress. Establish continuous environmental scanning rather than periodic reviews. Create decision triggers based on conditions, not just calendar dates. Communicate uncertainty honestly to build trust and enable faster organisational adaptation.